Impact of Hurricanes Evident in September Delinquency Numbers
- Early-stage delinquencies increased from a year ago
- The current- to 30-day transition rate rose sharply from year ago
- Houston and Miami posted large increases in delinquencies in September following hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria
In September 2017, 5 percent of home mortgages were in some stage of delinquency, down from 5.2 percent a year earlier and the lowest for any September since 2006, when it was 4.6 percent, according to the latest CoreLogic Loan Performance Insights Report. The measure includes all home loans 30 days or more past due, including those in foreclosure. For the month of September, the share of delinquent mortgages was highest – 11.3 percent – in September 2010.
The foreclosure inventory rate, meaning the share of mortgages in some stage of the foreclosure process, was 0.6 percent, down from 0.8 percent a year earlier. The foreclosure rate is now back to the pre-crisis level of 0.6 percent.
The share of mortgages that were 30 to 59 days past due – considered “early-stage” delinquencies – was 2.4 percent in September 2017, up from 2.1 percent in September 2016. This increase over a year ago reflects to impact of the hurricanes in Texas, Florida, and Puerto Rico. The share of mortgages 60 to 89 days past due was 0.7 percent in September 2017, unchanged from September 2016.
In addition to delinquency rates, CoreLogic tracks the rate at which mortgages transition from one stage of delinquency to the next, such as going from being current to 30 days past due. Figure 1 shows that while the current- to 30-day transition rate remained low in September, it increased above recent months, most likely due to the hurricanes. The September 2017 current- to 30-day rate was 1.3 percent, up from 0.9 percent in September 2016. The 30- to 60-day transition rate was 18.7 percent in September 2017, up from 16.8 percent in September 2016, while the 60- to 90-day transition rate was 29.3 percent this September, up from 28.3 percent a year earlier.
Figure 2 shows the states with the highest and lowest rate of mortgages in some stage of delinquency. In September 2017 that rate was highest in Mississippi – 8.7 percent — and Colorado had the lowest rate at 2.2 percent. Not shown in Figure 2 are the increases in delinquency rates for Florida and Texas. The delinquency rate in Florida increased from 6.3 percent in September 2016 to 7.5 percent in September 2017, and the delinquency rate in Texas increased from 5.5 percent in September 2016 to 6.8 percent in September 2017.
Figure 3 shows the 30-plus-day past-due rate for the 10 largest metro areas. The impact of the hurricanes is evident in the metro-level numbers. That rate was highest – 10.5 percent – in the Houston metro area and lowest – 1.8 percent – in San Francisco. Both Houston and Miami saw large increases in delinquency rates from a year ago. The delinquency rate in Houston rose from 5.8 percent in September 2016 to 10.5 percent in September 2017, and the delinquency rate in Miami rose from 7.4 percent in September 2016 to 9.6 percent in September 2017.
 Metro areas used in this report are the ten most populous Core Based Statistical Areas.
© 2017 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved.
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