Delinquencies Remain Elevated in Hurricane-Affected Areas

• The National delinquency rate fell slightly year over year in November
• Florida had the highest delinquency rate in November
• Miami’s delinquency rate the highest among 10 largest metros in November  

In November 2017, 5.1 percent of home mortgages were in some stage of delinquency, down from 5.2 percent a year earlier and the lowest for any November since 2006, when it was 4.6 percent, according to the latest CoreLogic Loan Performance Insights Report.  The measure includes all home loans 30 days or more past due, including those in foreclosure. For the month of November, the share of delinquent mortgages was highest – 11.5 percent – in November 2009.

The foreclosure inventory rate, meaning the share of mortgages in some stage of the foreclosure process, was 0.6 percent in November 2017, down from 0.8 percent a year earlier. The foreclosure rate is back to the pre-crisis level of 0.6 percent.

The share of mortgages that were 30 to 59 days past due – considered “early-stage” delinquencies – was 2.2 percent in November 2017, unchanged from November 2016. The share of mortgages 60 to 89 days past due was 0.9 percent in November 2017, up from 0.7 percent in November 2016. This increase over a year ago reflects the impact of the hurricanes in Texas, Florida, and Puerto Rico.

In addition to delinquency rates, CoreLogic tracks the rate at which mortgages transition from one stage of delinquency to the next, such as going from being current to 30 days past due. Figure 1 shows that the current- to 30-day transition rate remained well below housing crisis levels in November. The rate had increased in recent months, most likely due to the hurricanes. The November 2017 current- to 30-day rate was 1 percent, unchanged from November 2016. The 30- to 60-day transition rate was 24 percent in November 2017, up from 17.3 percent in November 2016, while the 60- to 90-day transition rate was 38.1 percent this November, up from 29.4 percent from a year earlier.

Figure 2 shows the states with the highest and lowest rate of mortgages in some stage of delinquency. In November 2017 that rate was highest in Florida – 9.9 percent — and both Colorado and North Dakota had the lowest rate at 2.1 percent. The delinquency rate in Florida increased by 3.6 percentage points from a year earlier due to effects from the late summer 2017 hurricanes. While Texas was not in the top five list, the delinquency rate in Texas increased from 5.6 percent in November 2016 to 6.7 percent in November 2017.

Figure 3 shows the 30-plus-day past-due rate for the 10 largest metro areas[1]. That rate was highest – 12.7 percent – in the Miami metro area and lowest – 1.7 percent – in San Francisco. Both Miami and Houston saw large increases in delinquency rates from a year ago as a result of the hurricanes. The delinquency rate in Miami rose from 7.4 percent in November 2016 to 12.7 percent in November 2017, and the delinquency rate in Houston rose from 5.9 percent in November 2016 to 10.3 percent in November 2017.

[1] Metro areas used in this report are the ten most populous Core Based Statistical Areas.

[BM1]Link to report

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